Are We in a Junk Wax 2.0 Era? The Modern Crisis of Overproduction and Over-Grading in Sports Cards

The term “Junk Wax Era” still echoes through the halls of hobby history — a cautionary tale from the late 1980s to early 1990s, when card companies flooded the market with millions of nearly identical baseball cards, saturating the hobby and destroying long-term value for most of the era’s releases. Now, decades later, many in the collecting world are beginning to ask a tough question: Are we in a Junk Wax 2.0 era?

And if so, this time, is it not just about overprinted cards — but also overgraded ones?

Let’s explore the similarities, differences, and the lessons collectors and investors must finally learn before history repeats itself on a greater scale.

The Original Junk Wax Era: A Refresher

During the original Junk Wax Era (roughly 1986–1994), card manufacturers like Topps, Donruss, Fleer, Score, and Upper Deck pushed quantity over quality. Fueled by booming popularity and media hype, they printed cards by the millions, hoping to satisfy a growing base of collectors and speculators. What followed was a predictable crash: supply overwhelmed demand, and most cards from the era became nearly worthless overnight.

The warning signs were obvious in hindsight:

• Rookie cards had dozens of variations.

• Everyone was “investing,” but few were collecting out of passion.

• There was no cap on print runs or transparency in production numbers.

Junk Wax 2.0: Different Wrapping, Same Trap

Fast-forward to the 2020s, and we’re seeing eerily familiar patterns — with new twists:

1. Overproduction Has Returned

While today's cards are often shinier, serial-numbered, or auto-inserted, the volume of sets, parallels, and print runs is staggering. The number of product lines across flagship, retail, hobby, premium, and online-exclusive tiers has exploded. Just like before, supply is outpacing organic collector demand.

2. Now Add Overgrading to the Equation

Perhaps the defining feature of Junk Wax 2.0 is the tsunami of graded cards hitting the market. PSA, BGS, and newer grading services have seen millions of submissions — many of them modern base cards that were mass-produced.

Some parallels to note:

• In the original Junk Wax era, everyone hoarded unopened boxes and rookie cards.

• In today’s era, people hoard PSA 10s of base rookies, convinced they’ll appreciate over time.

• Many modern rookies have thousands of PSA 10s — making "Gem Mint" anything but rare.

Grading, once a tool for authentication and quality control, has become its own asset class, and its overuse is inflating a bubble that looks all too familiar.

Key Differences: What’s Changed (and What Hasn’t)

Junk Wax Era (1.0)Modern Era (2.0)Mass overprintingMass overproduction + mass gradingMostly baseballMulti-sport boom: basketball, football, F1, UFC, etc.Few inserts/parallelsOverload of inserts, parallels, 1/1sCards were cheapCards are expensive, even base rookiesNo grading cultureGrading is now a major part of the marketKids were primary audienceNow driven by adults, flippers, and investors

While technology and card quality have improved, the same economic flaw persists: more supply than long-term demand.

What Collectors and Investors Haven’t Learned (Yet)

1. Scarcity Still Matters.
   If there are 25,000 PSA 10s of a rookie card, no matter how beloved the player is, long-term value will be limited. Manufactured scarcity (colored parallels, serial numbers) doesn’t always translate into true demand.

2. Grading Doesn't Guarantee Profit.
   People submit thousands of cards thinking a PSA 10 means instant returns — even on players with unproven or limited upside. Over time, even Gem Mint base cards lose value when the market is flooded.

3. Chasing the Next Luka or Connor Bedard Isn’t a Strategy.
   Investors chase the next big name as if it’s 1989 and Ken Griffey Jr. all over again. The difference? In 1989 there weren’t 50 variations of his rookie card in Chrome, Optic, Select, and National Treasures.

4. The Hobby Is Cyclical.
   Hype fades. Interest wanes. Casual collectors exit. The bubble bursts. Those who understand this and collect with patience — and purpose — usually come out ahead.

5. Collectors Drive the Hobby. Not Investors.
   In the long run, true collectors — not flippers — are the heartbeat of the industry. When the dust settles, passion and storytelling will always outlast speculation.

Final Thoughts: Will History Repeat Itself?

The sports card market today is undeniably bigger, flashier, and more global than it was in the ‘80s and ‘90s. But that doesn’t make it immune from repeating its mistakes.

Junk Wax 2.0 isn’t just a fear — it’s already here.
It’s hidden in slabs of overgraded rookies, stacks of low-end parallels, and unopened boxes being stockpiled in closets as “investments.”

Collectors and investors alike need to take a hard look at what they’re buying — and why.

Because the lesson of the original Junk Wax era isn’t just about avoiding overproduction. It’s about understanding what makes a card — or a collection — truly valuable in the first place.

Still holding piles of base rookies or slabs you don’t need? Let’s talk. At The Heritage Hockey Vault, we help collectors consign, downsize, and reconnect with the real value of their collections — before they become the next cautionary tale.