The Playoff Problem: How Auston Matthews’ Postseason Struggles Could Impact His Card Values
Auston Matthews is one of the most electrifying talents in the modern NHL era. A perennial Rocket Richard contender and the face of the Toronto Maple Leafs, Matthews has racked up goals and accolades in the regular season that most players dream of. But as the years roll on and the Stanley Cup continues to elude him and his team, a looming question hovers over his long-term legacy — and by extension, his trading card market: what happens if he never wins, or even gets close?
Regular Season Legend, Postseason Letdown
There’s no denying Auston Matthews’ regular season dominance. He’s already crossed multiple milestones, won the Hart Trophy, and leads one of the most passionate fanbases in the world. But the glaring hole in his résumé is playoff success. Year after year, the Leafs fall short. And as each season ends in heartbreak, collectors and investors begin to ask: how long can a superstar’s card market thrive on potential and loyalty alone?
In the hobby, winning matters. Playoff glory — especially deep runs or Stanley Cup wins — often elevates players from star to legend. For example, Nathan MacKinnon’s card values surged after the Avalanche’s Cup win, and even aging veterans like Alex Ovechkin saw a spike after finally breaking through. Conversely, players who never deliver in the postseason often see their market soften over time, despite regular season accolades. That’s the trajectory Matthews is risking.
Toronto Market Insulation: A Blessing and a Curse
One important caveat: Toronto is different. The Maple Leafs are the most valuable NHL franchise and boast a massive, passionate fan base. Many Leafs collectors will buy Auston Matthews cards regardless of playoff results simply because he’s their guy. For PC (personal collection) buyers, nostalgia, loyalty, and fandom often override performance metrics.
This creates a sort of floor for Matthews’ card prices — especially for base cards, autos, and serial-numbered Leafs-themed parallels. There will always be buyers who want a centerpiece Maple Leaf in their collection, especially if he spends his entire career in Toronto.
However, this insulation may not apply at the highest levels of the market. Premium rookie cards, low-numbered autos, high-grade Young Guns, and RPAs often attract investor money — and investors care deeply about legacy. If Matthews becomes known as the “Dan Marino of hockey” — dominant, but ringless — there’s a cap on how high his cards can go. Over time, especially after retirement, collectors may prioritize playoff heroes like Sidney Crosby, Connor McDavid (if he wins), or even Jack Eichel over a Maple Leaf who never got it done when it mattered most.
The Ticking Clock
Matthews is still in his prime, and one deep playoff run could change everything. But the hockey card market is no longer just a game of team loyalty — it's a business, too. While die-hard Leafs fans will always collect him, wider market sentiment will inevitably shift if postseason futility becomes the defining narrative of his career.
For now, his floor remains strong. But without postseason success, his ceiling could start to close — slowly, then all at once.
Final Thoughts: What Should Collectors Do?
If you’re a Leafs fan or believe in Matthews long-term, this may be a great time to selectively buy — especially on dips after playoff exits. Focus on rare parallels, on-card autos, and low-population graded rookies. But if you’re collecting for investment purposes, pay close attention to playoff performance in the coming seasons. Legacy matters — and in the card world, it’s often written in June.